Sunday, May 19, 2013

The Crypto Biological Threat

http://www.newenglishreview.org/blog_direct_link.cfm/blog_id/49094

 

19 May 2013

The Crypto Biological Threat

Microscopic Cryptosporidium pathogens

Source: US Communicable Disease Center, Atlanta

This week in the US, we had two revelations concerning possible threats to water supplies. We refer to the arrest and arraignment by federal prosecutors in Manhattan of Ahmed Abassi, a Tunisian national and chemical engineering graduate of Laval University in Quebec, on Asylum fraud and an alleged WMD attack on a municipal water system. See here. Then there was the detention of seven Pakistani, Saudi, and Singaporean chemical engineering students and graduates caught trespassing on the grounds of the Quabbin reservoir in Massachusetts after closing hours. The Quabbin Reservoir supplies the bulk of the City of Boston's and Western Massachusetts cities’ potable water. The Massachusetts State Police reported that the foreign group was not engaged in any reconnaissance for nefarious purposes at the Quabbin Reservoir. Nonetheless the FBI local office in Springfield, Massachusetts will be periodically monitoring the situation. See here.

Watch this Channel 22 WWLP news story on the Quabbin Reservoir incident in Massachusetts,“Increased precautions after trespassing incident at the Quabbin Reservoir”.

Increased precautions after trespassing incident at the Quabbin Reservoir

One of the more disabling and emerging pathogens is the cryptosporidium parvum (this is the human infective species) (Crypto) parasite (oocysts) derived from animal and human fecal tissue that has a toughened cell cover which is impervious to chlorination, fluoridation and in some instances, can avoid filtration. Within the United States and other countries, Cryptosporidiosis is a notifiable illness caused by extremely chlorine-tolerant protozoa of the genus Crypto. The only way the parasite can be killed is by boiling water above 160 degree F. Note in this article on the 20th anniversary of the Milwaukee Crypto outbreak that Milwaukeeans are still boiling water. See here. In the US we have had two mass Crypto outbreaks in water supply systems in Carrollton, Georgia in 1987 and in Milwaukee in 1993. The Georgia outbreak affected 13,000 out of 16,000 residents. Because the Milwaukee water supply system draws from Lake Michigan, Crypto pathogens might have entered from drainage or in ice breakup during the early spring. In the Milwaukee case, the epidemiologists and public health specialists estimate that more than 400,000 succumbed to Crypto causing massive outbreaks of watery diarrhea over a period of two weeks or more. 108 deaths occurred involving those with immune deficiencies from cancer treatment, AIDS and other maladies. Within immunocompromised communities, exposure frequently leads to severe and permanent diarrhea, decreasing absorption of nutrients resulting in progressive dehydration and eventual death. See here.

When the Tunisian jihadi, Abassi, referred to placing bacteria sufficient to kill 100,000 in a municipal system that was a stretch. More likely using Crypto parasites, e.coli or other waterborne pathogens could be planted by terrorists in sources and reservoirs for municipal water systems. Waterborne pathogens are more cost effective. Note this comparison:

One study maintains that four tons of the nerve agent VX would be required to cause several hundred thousand deaths if released in aerosol form in a crowded urban area, compared to only 50 kg of anthrax spores (Douglass and Livingstone 1987: 17).

Despite alleged means of attacking these microscopic pathogens as required by the US EPA, it is not fool proof. The number of reported cases and cost of Cryptosporidiosis in the United States continue to be substantial. According to the US. Center for Desease Control in Atlanta, approximately 748,000 Cryptosporidiosis cases occur annually in the US. Cryptosporidiosis is widespread geographically in the United States, with all 50 states and two metropolitan jurisdictions reporting cryptosporidiosis cases during 2009–2010. The UK for example, has had several noted outbreaks, even with increased surveillance and preventative measures such as water treatment filtration. See here.

Think of the use of such pathogens as a means of force reduction. One example in the Middle East might be the placement of Crypto in the source of the Israeli national water system in the Sea of Galilee and Jordan River. Having said that, we suspect that the Israelis may have already developed the means of monitoring to reduce this threat. Such a disease surveillance level is not yet fully in place in the UK, EU and the US.

Let’s address some questions to assess how vulnerable we could be to both state and non-state terrorist actors like Iran, Syria, DPRK, Hezbollah, Hamas and al Qaida capable of cultivating and disseminating Crypto.

1. How easily can the Crypto parasite be cultivated and stored for use as a BW?

Some emerging pathogens such as Crypto are resistant to chlorination and can appear even in high quality water supplies. New regulations from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will require water systems to monitor Crypto and adopt a range of treatment options based on source water Crypto concentrations. Most water systems are expected to meet EPA requirements while continuing to use chlorination to inactivate this sporazoa. See here.

In conversations with a Crypto expert from the UK Health Protection Agency, their concern was indeed Crypto in their own water supplies. Crypto can be obtained relatively easily and introduced into shallow shelf water reservoirs, such as exist particularly in sections of Beirut. Noting the new standards, which have been adopted in the US after the Milwaukee outbreak, a deliberate attack could be far more successful than a natural outbreak, in terms of introducing it into an unfiltered water supply or one with minimal surveillance and treatment.

It is relatively easy to acquire Crypto. Al Qaida and Hezbollah scientists certainly know how --as do scientific teams associated with the IRGC and the Quds Force. Again, deniability is the key. Parasites and spores, even anthrax in some geographic locations are naturally occurring and thus pose a challenge in terms of identification and response.

2. Which BW threat groups; i.e., Syria, Iran, DPRK, etc. have engaged in development of such pathogens? All ---including China, Russia, Taiwan, Sudan, Algeria, ---the list goes on and on. Also Crypto is one of those parasitic diseases where very valid research is needed because it is a concern, particularly to nations with unfiltered water, high rates of immuno compromised persons, and primitive health care infrastructures. However, as with other Category B and C pathogens, agents, parasites, toxins, there are two things to consider:

First, working in this kind of dual -use area could provide cover for a black program or could enable genetic modification in such a way, not by terrorists per say but by military laboratories, to evade current filtration and or inactivation.

Second, the deliberate introduction of any Category A, B, or C agent would likely produce casualties with high infection rates, possibly require triage and could overwhelm some nations’ laboratory capacity. As mentioned above if-- it is difficult to isolate, nations with inferior lab diagnostics could struggle with it, time is an issue in any outbreak of disease, particularly those which are transmissible.

3. Can Crypto pathogens be developed by scientifically trained terrorists, whether Hezbollah, Hamas, Al Qaida, or individual jihadis like Abassi? Absolutely. They can be cultivated. Certainly scientists who are with Al Qaida, Hezbollah, and Hamas could easily work with Crypto (C.parvum). There some pathogens that are very difficult to work with but would provide higher kill ratios, which is what you want if you are a terrorist, or you select a less invasive pathogen, agent, parasite and go for lower risks in other areas. Lower containment would be needed. There are lists of both targets and pathogen selection depending on the target. Think of Crypto as a force reducer. Al Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb might hit sections of the water supply in Africa or the Middle East where your adversaries will be knocked out for a few weeks. Used as a force reducer, Crypto could well provide advantages after the initial infection, or BW/CW to weaken forces, civilians or even UN peacekeepers/NGO’s.

Crypto would appear to be a cheap means of entry for bio-warfare terrorism with dramatic debilitating results if introduced into untreated and even treated water supplies. This is especially acute with vulnerable populations; i.e., cancer, AIDS and those with immuno deficiencies. Moreover, the effects of a deliberate Crypto attack could be devastating to something like the Metropolitan Boston area dependent on the Quabbin Reservoir for its potable water supply and those municipalities that use rivers and lakes as their source water. That is evidenced by the 1987 Carrolton, Georgia, 1993 Milwaukee and recent UK outbreaks, especially as the latter have the same water purification standards as the US EPA.

 

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