Syria Snap Analysis: What Did Israel Bomb, and Why?

 

 

Syria Snap Analysis: What Did Israel Bomb, and Why?

http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2013/5/5/syria-snap-analysis-what-did-israel-bomb-and-why.html

 

 

Scientists said that the explosions measured between two and three on the

Richter scale, a scale designed to measure earthquakes. Giant balls of fire

rose above Mt. Qasioun, a mountain that overlooks the capital and is at the

center of Syria's largest military complex. The very symbol of Assad's

control over Damascus was on fire.

 

Immediately, Syrian officials stated that an Israeli airstrike had hit a

military installation in the area. Within a short time, unnamed American

officials confirmed Israel had struck Damascus, a sign that the US

government likely greenlighted the attack.

 

This strike took place within days of another Israeli airstrike that

apparently targeted a shipment of rockets en route from the Syrian military

to Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon.

 

Some analysts have said that a stockpile of rockets, made in Iran and bound

for Lebanon, was the target of this second strike.

 

However, this analysis ignores the fact that several important military

installations appear to have been the targets of this most recent strike.

 

The Syrian government claimed that a military research facility was struck

(map). In addition, there have been many videos of the explosions, taken

from many different angles, which suggest that a much wider range of

targets, across a wider area of the military installation, were struck and

not simply a convoy of rockets.

 

An initial analysis by Stroyful's Félim McMahon suggests that the research

facility itself was not hit, but rather the nearby headquarters of the 104th

Brigade. Beyond this, videos suggest that huge stockpiles of weapons, likely

artillery shells and ballistic/artillery rockets, were also destroyed in the

airstrike.

 

The 104th Brigade is an elite group of Republican Guards tasked with

defending one of the most sensitive areas of Assad's defense network in the

capital.

 

The precise locations of the targets are still being nailed down and

confirmed, but some insurgent leaders are reporting that an even wider

stretch of area was hit:

 

The 4th Armored Divion is Assad's most important unit, run by his brother,

Rifaat Al Assad. If the 4th Armored Division was indeed the target of the

airstrike, this is a major blow to Assad and to the regime.

 

The Israeli airstrike did not target stockpiles of weapons deep in storage.

 

These are the most important fortresses that the regime maintains, and are

instrumental to Assad's ongoing defense against the rebel offensive. These

artillery and rockets from this area are used to routinely target insurgent

positions, and civilian neighborhoods, all across the capital, from east to

west, north to south.

 

These stockpiles are particularly important to Assad's efforts to retake

Darayya, the largest suburb of Damascus which has been at the front lines of

the fight for the capital for over six months. There are unconfirmed reports

that the 4th Armored Division and the 155th Brigade SCUD missile base were

also hit, but even if this is not the case, the Israelis have struck at some

of Assad's most important bases, just kilometers from the Presidential

Palace.

 

The message to Assad is clear. If the regime continues to move rockets

across the border to aid Hezbollah, Israel willnot only strike at the

immediate threat, but will deal serious body blows to the regime, severely

hampering Assad's efforts to counter Syria's insurgency.

 

The question remains, however, as to whether destabilizing Assad was the

ultimate goal of this airstrike. At the very least, Israel has proven that

it is willing to pick a side and go all in if it feels threatened.

 

This incident should also permanently put to rest the debate as to whether

Assad's air defense is capable of standing up to external threats. Assad is

completely vulnerable, and has been dealt a serious blow. As a result,

Israel may have completely changed the debate about foreign intervention in

a single instant, and may have catalyzed an international drive to remove

Bashar al-Assad from power.

 

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