South Africa in the DRC: We're going to war

http://www.timeslive.co.za/thetimes/2013/05/13/we-re-going-to-war

We're going to war

GRAEME HOSKEN | 13 May, 2013 01:10As South African troops prepare for deployment to the violence- racked east
of the Democratic Republic of Congo, the enemy is gearing up for full-scale
war.

A 1000-strong South African contingent is expected to be deployed to the
region within a month as part of an African intervention force. It will
almost certainly be drawn into conflict with the heavily armed and
battle-hardened M23 rebel group after the collapse of peace talks between
the rebels and the central government in Kinshasa.

One of 33 rebel groups in the region, the M23 has 40t of munitions looted
from DRC army armouries in clashes in the east of the country last year.

The M23 routed DRC government forces in November in a fight for the capital
of the country's eastern region, Goma, where South African peacekeepers were
deployed. In the battle for Goma, South African soldiers were caught by
surprise and the M23 forces - whose officers have over 20 years of jungle
combat experience - were able to take the town within days.

Reported to have access to T55 and T72 Soviet-era tanks, and armed with
anti-tank and surface-to-air missiles, anti-aircraft guns, heavy machine
guns, armoured vehicles and rocket-propelled grenades, the M23's 5500-strong
force is in the final stages of preparing for war.

The rebels have upped their propaganda war against the South Africans since
warning President Jacob Zuma last month of a "catastrophic and apocalyptic"
response if the SANDF engaged them.

The group has since revealed that it plans to kidnap SANDF troops to force
South Africa to about-turn on the deployment.

The rebels are said to be backed by Rwandan and Ugandan military advisers
and special forces, a claim both countries deny.

In March, the UN Security Council authorised the deployment of a 3000-man
intervention force to the DRC to work alongside 17000 UN peacekeepers. The
intervention force, which will comprise South African, Malawian and
Tanzanian troops, is expected to arrive in the DRC within a month.

As opposed to the peacekeeping force, the new intervention force's mandate
will see troops being able to engage rebel forces regardless of provocation
in order to bring stability to the region.

Two months ago 13 South African paratroops were killed in the battle for the
Central African Republic's capital, Bangui.

South Africa's most serious military disadvantages in that battle were lack
of air support and poor intelligence - the same situation now faced by the
troops destined for the DRC.

The SANDF has limited heavy-lift air transport capability, its Rooivalk
attack helicopters' Makopa anti-tank missiles are not yet certified, and it
is most unlikely that the air force's Gripen fighter jets will be deployed
to the DRC. Knowing all this, South African soldiers are gravely concerned
about the impending battle.

An army officer, who has knowledge of the mission's planning, said: "We
train and fight hard. We know our job and are capable, but with little air
support, this fight is difficult. We learned good lessons in CAR but, make
no mistake, this will not be easy.

"The M23 are well-armed and have good intelligence. They will not fight
conventionally. It will be guerrilla-style attacks preying on our
weaknesses, and our lack of cohesion and joint training with the other
forces."

SANDF spokesman Brigadier-General Xolani Mabanga declined to comment other
than to say: "We are awaiting the UN's force deployment orders."

Defence analyst Helmoed Heitman said: "The M23 are not a bunch of ragtag
rebels. They are superior in their jungle-fighting capabilities with backing
from neighbouring countries [that are] running proxy military forces in the
region.

''Our biggest problem is lack of air capabilities. We have the Rooivalk
attack helicopter and Oryx troop-carrying helicopters, but we have no proper
heavy-lift transport aircraft to get our equipment and troops in and out
safely.

"The Rooivalk's anti-tank missile is not certified, meaning it will have to
get dangerously close to the enemy for its rockets to be effective.

"We are taking our long-range G5 cannon and various armoured vehicles but
these vehicles will not withstand the M23's fire-power. Their 37mm
anti-aircraft guns are lethal both to air and ground targets and they have
the support of tanks and special forces."

Heitman said major hindrances included the lack of intelligence. "Our
defence intelligence is what got us into trouble in CAR.

"Added to this is the UN's view that this is just another peacekeeping
mission. Instead of additional forces, they divided the current peacekeeping
force, transferring the South African brigade to the intervention force and
creating a vacuum for the rebels to capitalise on. This is not peacekeeping.
It will be aggressive counter-guerrilla warfare in which people, including
civilians, will die. You need numbers that are not there to bring about
peace."

Heitman said the M23 rebels knew the SANDF's capabilities.

"They will not pick on us. They will pick on the possible weak links -
Malawi and Tanzania - who have little battle experience. They will harass,
divide and conquer." He added: "They have the strong possibility of tank and
special forces support."

Maria Langer, DRC country manager for International Alert - a UK
"peace-building" NGO - described the security situation as critical.

"The M23 have regrouped into key areas and are recruiting civilians for the
war. They are 5km from Goma and are poised to take the town.

"Not only are the M23 around, but so are 30 other rebel groups."

Langer said: "The intervention force was designed to be a persuasive and
preventative force but the DRC government sees it as a military solution."