Analysis: Hizbollah's quandary over Israel retaliation in Syria
Israel's air raids on Hizbollah targets inside Syria have landed one of its
most dangerous foes with an agonising dilemma.
By David Blair, Chief Foreign Correspondent
10:18PM BST 06 May 2013
For years, the radical Shia movement has painstakingly amassed an arsenal of
Iranian-supplied weaponry. Today, Hizbollah has tens of thousands of
missiles carefully stockpiled in south Lebanon and readied for use against
Israel.
If Hassan Nasrallah, the Hizbollah leader and a man who once basked in the
adoration of the Arab world, is not prepared to launch his deadly armoury
now, then when might he ever do so? He must decide whether to retaliate for
the air strikes by bombarding Israel - and almost certainly starting a
regional war - or sitting tight and risking the appearance of a paper tiger.
Israel clearly believes that Mr Nasrallah will choose caution. Benjamin
Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, authorised the raids on Syria and
then nonchalantly flew to China on a visit that will keep him away until
Friday. This was not the behaviour of a leader who believes his country to
be on the brink of war.
Israel has moved two of its five Iron Dome missile defence batteries near
the border with Lebanon. But General Yair Golan, the head of Israeli
Northern Command, told journalists that he did not sense any "winds of war".
He spoke while joining the annual fun run for the Golani Brigade - again,
hardly the behaviour of a general who thinks he is about to fight.
Instead, Israel senses the prospect of a strategic victory over Hizbollah.
Mr Nasrallah faces his dilemma at a uniquely testing moment.
Hizbollah gets its weapons from Iran, but they must reach Lebanon across
Syrian territory. If President Bashar al-Assad goes, so might this vital
supply route.
The leaders of post-Assad Syria will almost certainly be drawn from the
country's Sunni majority, who are not natural allies of Shia Hizbollah, and
still less of Iran.
The fact that Mr Nasrallah has sent his men to Syria to fight alongside the
current regime almost guarantees him the enmity of any future ruler.
The possible loss of his supply line will alter Mr Nasrallah's calculations.
When he started the last war with Israel in 2006, he knew that every missile
he fired could be replaced by Iran - as indeed they were. This time, there
might be no new supply of rockets down the road from Syria.
Fortunately for Mr Nasrallah, he has another option. Every so often, an
incident lifts the veil on Hizbollah's covert campaign against Israeli
interests worldwide. In March, one operative was convicted in Cyprus for
scouting out Israeli targets on the island.
As a middle way between doing nothing and firing off his arsenal, Mr
Nasrallah could escalate his movement's efforts to attack Israeli tourists
and diplomats.
That is hardly a rerun of the glory days of 2006, when he claimed to have
taken on Israel and won. In his current predicament, however, Mr Nasrallah
may have little choice.
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